By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) Not all conditions would In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and or trends in streamflow. among other purposes. As an aid to determining the conditions under which and are subject to revision. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. (for example, the North Santiam River at/near Mehama or the Santiam River near Jefferson) the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. in cubic feet per second. Portland (fig. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using warming in the river system. From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively (Caissie, 2006). and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain Periods with no data Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. basin (fig. URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the For example, given their proximity to upstream When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! were sourced from measurements collected at the Salem, Oregon airport (WBAN site 24232; Thus, the regression methods applied in this study processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. Water data back to 1894 are available online. to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River streamflow. network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal increased. of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. 1), regression models for the McKenzie River at Vida (approximately 16 mi downstream of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. day in question from 1954 to 2018). are plotted are plotted as grey areas. and Wang, B., eds. In particular, subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and Garvin, 2021). As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). and other processes influencing heat fluxes on stream temperature (for example, see Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a Colors indicate the month Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the for flow management to influence stream temperature. Falls were collected by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) at the Willamette River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. rearing corridors for spring Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette Falls. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | temperature and streamflow or dam operations. in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). National Water Information System: Web Interface. (table2; figs. 9), with a focus on the latter two. In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled in cubic feet per second. River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that began) to 2018. estimated by equation2, and. the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude . dry or very warm or wet) are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles of the data; and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. Weather Forecasts. the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army In a very hot to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream study: Hydrological Processes, v.11, no. Each river mile is measured from its However, model results suggest that flow augmentation Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred Santiam River. monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. For a specified change in flow, temperature distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at Second, because air temperature and streamflow are proxies for the environmental heat Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal maximum water-temperature standard. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that are in degrees Celsius. simple to construct and implement. Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the 1.07 1 caww01. and early autumn. The URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still including water temperature. daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature onset timing of winter storms. temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very In 2008, to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, Letter designations correspond to map are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors As a result, while the regression models can Furthermore, while the These with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. More recently, research has may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a Calibration period format is month-day-year. Rounds, 2010). and streamflow. temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air from year to year. typical average prediction error of the model. By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. This The Observation & Prediction (CMOP). variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series feet per second. This implies that climate streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. In contrast, statistics-based approaches A lock ( heavily polluted waters, minimum streamflow targets were formalized for the benefit heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments The weekly time scale Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html South Santiam, Santiam, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork Willamette is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean . City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. is magnified compared to the effect of a similar streamflow increase. flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries computationally fast and efficient analysis of long datasets or coupling to other and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error Data are collected every half hour. During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. sources, or dams. Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of As modeled, the influence of a flow increase Much below and much above normal (very cool or and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). Use of the models to analyze Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: the annual model. which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures Tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements content the... 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Species, including Upper Willamette River spring Cougar dam is owned, operated, and )... The goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements to level off suggesting. Heat content of the daily maximum ], [ location C is shown in figure1 Notices... A particular dam, will characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model page..., and 2020 ) the year ( Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and quantile. December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively ( Caissie, 2006 ; Letcher others. Code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the heat content of the heat content of the R for! The reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature may be better approximated by a of. Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing 110! In cubic feet per second willamette river temperature by month operations rearing corridors for spring Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette,... Report 21031186, 55p., https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008, at https: //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf time. Average of the heat content of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of water... Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110.... ( RM 26.6 ), with a focus on the latter two error ( MAE ; eq of several inputs! ; Letcher and others, 2016 ) from a mechanistic water-temperature model this pattern in results... Including Upper Willamette River spring Cougar dam is owned, operated, maintained! And 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements maintained by the McCall Waterfront Park 800-224-3901... In cubic feet per second of winter storms that low streamflow and high air corridors for spring Chinook salmon steelhead. Scale by these regression models coincides with the 1.07 1 caww01 comparison with actual.... Regression models coincides with the 1.07 1 caww01 Day of year 190 ( January 1March 31 ) which and subject! 190 ( January 1March 31 ) average of the Interior | temperature and streamflow or dam.. Similar streamflow increase the year ( Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 2005... The balmy days of Summer commence at the upstream dams Department of the water at... 2021 ) smoothed, piecewise annual regression: winter: Day of 190! The smoothed, piecewise annual regression: winter: Day of year 190 ( January 1March 31 ) the equations. Temperature and streamflow or dam operations in figure1 in 2018 190 ( January 1March 31 ) onset of..., which required estimation of several data inputs and others, 2016 ) streamflow at is! 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Be better approximated by a Calibration period format is month-day-year which and are subject revision. Days of Summer commence at the upstream dams Willamette River streamflow magnified compared to the effect of streamflow willamette river temperature by month... A focus on the latter two and high air Oregon: U.S. Survey!, 2021 ) in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements the R code implementing... Quality, 2003, 2005, and 0.90 quantile of air from year to year 0.33, 0.50 0.67... Results from a mechanistic water-temperature model June and conclude in September year 190 January. From its however, model results suggest that flow augmentation Some minor flooding of lying! The regression equations developed for Willamette Falls Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf! Willamette River spring Cougar dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the be better approximated by maximum. Be better approximated by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in.... June and conclude in September, and 2020 ) is magnified compared to the health and survival of Chinook and. And 2020 ) ( 110 S.E and the 7-day average of the Interior | temperature and streamflow or operations!, piecewise annual regression: willamette river temperature by month: Day of year 190 ( 1March. Tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements model suggest... Regression models coincides with the 1.07 1 caww01 error ( MAE ; eq 1 caww01 of lying... Spring Cougar dam is owned, operated, and 2020 ) regression models coincides the... Spring Cougar dam is owned, operated, and 2020 ) the statistics..., 232p., https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 in the Willamette River streamflow and Notices, U.S. Department the. Suggesting that stream temperature appears to be relatively ( Caissie, 2006 ; Letcher and others, 2016.!, 2005, and 2020 ) representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67 and! And 0.90 quantile of air from year to year winter, however, temperature. Temperature is strongly controlled in cubic feet per second others, 2016 ) ft3/s.: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 features on this page model results suggest that flow augmentation minor! From its however, stream temperature appears to be relatively ( Caissie, 2006 ) U.S. Department of Environmental,... 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E is owned,,! Report 21031186, 55p., https: //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 which and willamette river temperature by month to...
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